Changing Patterns of Retirement in Northern BC – Implications for Health Policy and Planning

Forecasting plays a critical role in decision-making systems, particularly in healthcare systems modeling. Comprehending the dynamics of healthcare systems is essential for effective planning to meet future needs. In British Columbia, the population is projected to continue growing and aging, trends that are expected to lead to increased demand for healthcare services. Northern British Columbia in not an exception. This research aims to develop a comprehensive dynamic model to project healthcare demand in Northern British Columbia (BC). A particular focus would be on the effects of intra-provincial migration patterns, specifically the movement of retirees from Southern BC to Northern BC. A computer-based model will be created to help understand and predict how different parts of the healthcare system work together over time. The developed model is grounded in a systems thinking approach, allowing us to represent and understand complex systems by showing how different parts influence each other over time through feedback loops. With the collaboration of Northern Health, this research will discover key factors, such as aging and migration, that influence the demand for healthcare services, considering the available supply of resources. By utilizing the constructed method, the research will simulate the complexities inherent in healthcare demand forecasting and will identify strategies for effective resource allocation and policy planning. Moreover, it will provide valuable insights for improving healthcare delivery in Northern BC.

Keywords: Northern British Columbia; Intra-provincial Migration; Dynamic Healthcare System; Simulation